突然暴雷，美联储9月降息概率陡升

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July raises concerns about the current state of the labor market, prompting speculation about potential actions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September [2][5]. Employment Growth - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a decrease in household employment volatility [2]. - Job growth was primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 positions, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000 [2]. Data Revisions - Previous months' data were significantly revised downwards, with June's job additions revised down by 133,000 to just 14,000, marking a near five-year low [3]. - May's job additions were also revised down by 125,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the two months [3]. - The average monthly job growth from May to July fell to approximately 35,000, the slowest pace since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job openings in June dropped from 7.7 million to 7.4 million, the lowest level in a year [4]. - Despite the decline in job openings, layoffs remain at historically low levels, with a layoff rate of 1%, below the average of 1.4% from 2010 to 2019 [4]. - The current labor market situation is characterized as "no extra hiring, lukewarm" by analysts [4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to stabilize long-term inflation expectations [4][5]. - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 0.3% in the previous month, with the year-on-year growth increasing from 2.4% to 2.6% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may consider rate cuts if labor market weakness persists, similar to the previous year when a key recession indicator was triggered [5][6]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts have increased, with an 82% probability of a rate cut in September according to futures pricing [6]. - Wells Fargo anticipates consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy stance [6].