美联储内斗“公开化”！两高官称“就业依旧稳健”，两反对派发声明“等待是犯错”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding monetary policy direction, particularly in light of recent weak employment data and differing opinions on the need for interest rate cuts [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The July non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with a substantial downward revision of 258,000 for May and June combined, indicating a weakening labor market [1]. - New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack described the labor market as still robust, characterizing the recent data as a mild cooling rather than a concerning deterioration [1][2]. - Williams emphasized that broader indicators, such as job vacancies and initial unemployment claims, suggest a balanced state of slow hiring and slow layoffs [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed their dissenting views before the non-farm data release, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, arguing that waiting poses risks to the economy [1][4]. - This marks the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors have publicly issued dissenting statements simultaneously, highlighting unprecedented policy disagreements within the Fed [5]. - Waller criticized the cautious approach, suggesting it fails to adequately balance risks and could lead to policy lagging behind economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Williams expressed greater concern over inflation, noting that core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][3]. - Both Williams and Hammack acknowledged the need for the Fed to ensure inflation expectations remain low and stable, indicating ongoing challenges in managing inflation [2][3]. Group 4: Challenges for Powell - The public division within the Fed complicates the task for Chair Powell in achieving consensus at the upcoming September meeting, especially amid ongoing criticism from former President Trump [6]. - Williams noted the natural occurrence of differing views given the high uncertainty surrounding trade, immigration, and fiscal policies [6]. - Even among the nine officials who supported maintaining rates in July, there were differing concerns regarding the labor market versus the inflation outlook, further complicating consensus-building efforts [6].