"7月不降息、9月大幅降息”？市场热议：美联储是否“去年再现”

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak employment report has sparked discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last year's strategy of maintaining rates in July and significantly cutting them in September [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' employment figures being revised downwards [1]. - Following the weak employment report, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90% [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current situation has drawn parallels to last summer when the Federal Reserve also chose not to cut rates in July, but a subsequent weak employment report led to a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - Notably, the economic context differs this year, as inflation concerns are heightened due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contrasting with last year's declining inflation [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Considerations - Rick Rieder from BlackRock indicated that if the labor market continues to weaken, with job additions remaining below 100,000, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts, with a 50 basis point cut in September being a possibility [4]. - The upcoming employment report and inflation data will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic landscape [4].