Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic downturn has significantly impacted risk appetite, leading to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.2%, a substantial downward revision of new job additions, and accelerated contraction in the manufacturing sector, all contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets and a sharp decline in oil prices [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 110,000 [2][3] - Job additions for May and June were revised down significantly, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI for July dropped to 48, below the expected 49.5 and indicating contraction for five consecutive months [3] Oil Market Dynamics - The current weakness in oil prices reflects a struggle between macroeconomic risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with macroeconomic sentiment suppressing market performance [2][3] - The oil market is facing a balance dilemma for producing countries between short-term revenue and long-term market share, with OPEC's potential production increase possibly exacerbating supply surplus [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to a combination of negative macroeconomic data, rising unemployment, and the impact of tariff policies, which have collectively heightened risk aversion and led to a drop in risk asset prices [1][2][3] Demand Outlook - There is a consensus that oil demand may accelerate its decline this quarter due to escalating global trade tensions and slowing economic growth, aligning with historical patterns observed during recessionary cycles [3] - The IMF has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, further suppressing oil demand expectations [3]
邓正红能源软实力：宏观经济利空打压风险偏好和需求前景 国际油价大幅走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-02 05:24