对标美股估值，券商测算上证指数涨幅空间达83%！惠璞投资徐克：拒绝盲目追涨，拥抱主线+纪律操作

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing the 3600-point mark and experiencing a three-month upward trend in monthly K-line, alongside increasing trading volumes [1] Valuation Analysis - According to Xinda Securities, if A-share valuations align with U.S. stock valuations, the Shanghai Composite Index could have an upside potential of 83%, with the current P/E ratio at 15.6 times compared to the S&P 500's 28.5 times as of July 25, 2025 [2] - Xinda Securities notes that A-share ROE is weaker than that of U.S. stocks, suggesting that A-share valuations may only reach U.S. levels during a phase of bull market bubble [4] - The historical performance of P/B and P/E ratios indicates that the A-share market has significant upside potential, with a 39% increase possible if P/B reaches the 2021 peak of 3.10 times and a 140% increase if it reaches the 2015 peak of 5.35 times [4][8] Market Capitalization and Economic Indicators - The A-share market's market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently at 0.71, significantly lower than Japan's 1.66 and the U.S.'s 2.64, indicating a potential upside of approximately 134% if it reaches Japan's level and 272% if it reaches the U.S. level [9] - Xinda Securities highlights that A-share total market value and circulation market value relative to household deposits are at low levels, suggesting substantial room for valuation recovery [11] Structural Bull Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "structural bull market," where index increases do not necessarily equate to widespread gains among individual stocks. Key factors include supportive policies, improved corporate earnings, and increased risk appetite among investors [12][13] - Investors are advised to focus on core investment themes, avoid chasing marginal stocks, and implement strict stop-loss measures to mitigate risks during this potential bull market [14]