二季度全球黄金需求总量（含场外交易）仍同比增长3%至1249吨

Core Insights - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a value surge of 45% to $132 billion, marking a historical high [1] - The growth was primarily driven by investment demand, central bank purchases, regional market differentiation, and structural changes in consumption trends [2] Investment Demand: Core Growth Engine - Gold ETFs and similar products were the main drivers of demand growth, with a net inflow of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with slight outflows in the same period of 2024 [3] - Cumulative inflows for the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020, reflecting institutional investors' hedging against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - In China, gold ETF inflows amounted to 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion), with holdings increasing to 200 tons and assets under management (AUM) surging 116% year-on-year to 152.5 billion RMB [3] - Demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, with Chinese investors leading globally with a demand of 115 tons, a 44% increase year-on-year [3] Central Bank Purchases: Long-term Support - Global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2 2025, remaining at historically high levels, 41% above the average from 2010-2021 [6] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings in the next 12 months, highlighting a trend towards de-dollarization [6] - The People's Bank of China added 6 tons in Q2, totaling 19 tons for the first half of the year, with official reserves reaching 2299 tons, accounting for 6.7% of foreign reserves [6] Consumption Demand: Structural Changes - Global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, nearing 2020 pandemic lows, with China's demand dropping 20% year-on-year to 69 tons, the weakest Q2 since 2007 [7] - Despite the decline, high-end jewelry demand remained resilient, while the mass market shifted towards lighter, more innovative designs, leading to a 21% increase in consumption value to $36 billion [7] - India's demand decreased by 17% year-on-year, although pre-wedding season purchases and trade-in policies mitigated some of the decline [8] Price and Supply: Market Balance Amid High Prices - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12] - In China, the average physical gold price surpassed 1000 RMB per gram, with retail prices fluctuating between 984-1018 RMB per gram [13] - Gold mine production increased by 3% year-on-year to 909 tons, a record high for the quarter, while recycled gold supply grew by only 4%, indicating a reluctance among holders to sell [14] - Overall, gold prices rose by 26% in the first half of the year, outperforming most mainstream assets [15] Regional Market: Differentiation and Resilience - The Chinese market exhibited strong investment but weak consumption, with total retail gold demand reaching 245 tons, a 28% increase year-on-year, despite weak jewelry demand [16] - In India, demand for gold bars and coins rose to 46 tons, but jewelry consumption fell by 17% due to price-sensitive consumers reducing purchases [17] - European demand doubled due to post-energy crisis risk aversion, while U.S. demand for bars and coins fell to 9 tons due to a high-interest rate environment [17] - The growth in gold demand underscores its dual value as a safe-haven asset and a long-term allocation tool [17] Future Outlook - Geopolitical developments, monetary policy trajectories, and changes in consumer behavior will be key variables influencing the gold market [19]