尿素主力09合约：7月宽幅震荡，8月或延续调整

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remains relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand has seen seasonal increases due to compound fertilizer load and export boosts, facilitating smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, weak terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices led to a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The improvement in supply and demand for urea is limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics will likely continue to be influenced by macroeconomic factors, with limited support for urea demand as agricultural needs diminish and industrial demand growth remains inadequate [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Perspective - The 09 contract is expected to reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is predicted to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]