300% 宏观杠杆率，未富先老魔咒已成真？

Core Viewpoint - China's macro leverage ratio has surpassed 300% for the first time, reaching 300.4% as of June 2025, indicating a significant increase in debt relative to GDP, driven by factors such as aging population and economic slowdown [3][5][12]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - As of the end of 2024, the elderly population aged 60 and above in China reached 31.03 million, accounting for 22.0% of the total population, with the elderly dependency ratio rising to 22.8% [7]. - The nominal GDP growth rate fell to 3.9% in Q2 2025, the lowest since 2023, contributing to the passive increase in the macro leverage ratio [8]. - Government bond net financing in the first half of 2025 was 7.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, leading to a rise in government leverage ratio to 65.3% [8][11]. Group 2: Debt Structure and Challenges - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises stands at 174%, significantly higher than the average of developed economies (86.6%) and emerging markets (94%) [11]. - The household leverage ratio decreased to 61.1%, primarily due to a decline in real estate sales and increased early mortgage repayments, although consumer loans have seen some growth [8][11]. - The rising elderly dependency ratio has increased financial pressure on both households and the government, leading to an expansion of debt levels [7][8]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To lower the macro leverage ratio, the government should consider reducing taxes and simplifying regulations to boost nominal GDP growth [14]. - Optimizing the debt structure through the issuance of government bonds and local government special bonds can help replace high-cost hidden debts [14]. - Focusing on "investing in people" and enhancing residents' quality, along with financial market reforms, will be essential for addressing the challenges posed by high leverage [14][15].