非农 “超级雷暴” 炸场！美联储政策转向？全球市场震荡下的投资信号

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data revealed a significant downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs over the past two months, indicating a weakening labor market [1][2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve faces internal policy disagreements, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts due to economic slowdown, while others caution against it due to inflation concerns [1][2] - The introduction of new tariffs has raised the effective tax rate in the U.S. from 17.3% to 20.5%, potentially leading to a "stagflation-like" scenario characterized by economic weakness and persistent inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Market reactions included a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a drop in the dollar and oil prices, and a rise in gold prices driven by risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [3][4] - Key upcoming economic data releases in August, including the services PMI, CPI, and retail sales, are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions in September [3][4] - The long-term outlook suggests a continuation of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with a likelihood of lower U.S. Treasury rates and a weaker dollar, benefiting gold and non-U.S. assets [4][5]