A股，接下来还有三道坎

Group 1 - In July 2023, China's capital market experienced extreme volatility, particularly in the commodity market, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 7.2% in the first 19 trading days, followed by a significant pullback [1][4] - Key commodities such as polysilicon surged by 64%, coking coal by 50%, and glass by 34%, but subsequently, many of these commodities saw declines of around 20% [1][6] - The market's initial rally was triggered by the sixth Central Financial Committee meeting, which emphasized the need for legal and regulatory governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity [5][6] Group 2 - The market's focus on terms like "low price" and "backward capacity exit" led to comparisons with the supply-side reforms initiated in late 2015, particularly affecting polysilicon, which saw significant price increases [6][7] - Following the announcement of a new round of policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, the commodity market entered a phase of aggressive price increases, with coking coal hitting five consecutive daily price limits [6][7] - However, subsequent policy shifts indicated a more targeted approach to capacity governance, leading to a sharp decline in commodity prices, particularly for previously high-flying products [7][8] Group 3 - The A-share market also experienced a strong upward trend in July, with steel stocks rising over 25% and basic chemicals and construction materials increasing by more than 18% [8][9] - The political bureau meeting's adjustments to the anti-involution narrative may pose downward pressure on cyclical sectors, as evidenced by market corrections in early August [9][10] - Potential risks for the A-share market include uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations and a weakening expectation for macroeconomic policy support [10][11] Group 4 - The U.S. labor market data showed significant downward revisions, raising concerns about the overall economic outlook and potentially impacting global markets [12][13][14] - The credibility of U.S. economic data has come under scrutiny, which could affect global financial markets, including A-shares, especially given their current high valuations [14] - Despite these challenges, the "national team" has historically intervened to stabilize the market, suggesting that while large declines may be mitigated, volatility remains a concern [14][16]