凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：日本央行维持利率不变但释放加息信号

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its benchmark policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, but signaled a strong inclination towards future rate hikes [1][3] - The Bank of Japan significantly raised its inflation forecast, projecting the core CPI for fiscal year 2025 to reach between 2.8% and 3.0%, up from the previous estimate of 2.2% to 2.4% [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that if economic and price trends align with expectations, the central bank will "gradually raise policy rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing," which was interpreted as a clear signal for potential rate hikes [6] Group 2 - Despite the signals for rate hikes, there remains market uncertainty regarding the timing, with economists suggesting that the Bank of Japan may raise rates by the end of the year, contingent on the impact of tariffs on third-quarter economic data [8] - Future policy direction of the Bank of Japan will depend on whether inflation remains persistent, consumer spending recovers, and changes in the global trade environment [8] - If economic data meets expectations, the Bank of Japan may take action to further tighten monetary policy in October or December [8]