Group 1 - The forum highlighted the importance of the global financial system in mitigating geopolitical risks and ensuring the stability of international trade and supply chains [4] - The discussions emphasized the need for China to enhance its participation in global economic governance and strengthen international cooperation to counter systemic risks [4] - The forum presented various expert analyses on the definition and dimensions of geopolitical economic risks, noting the lack of a unified academic definition [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis revealed that geopolitical economic risks have a multifaceted impact on macroeconomics and financial markets, with positive effects on CPI and negative impacts on PPI, stock markets, exports, and FDI [10] - Research indicated that geopolitical economic risks lead to significant adverse spillover effects on China's financial markets and real economy, with key transmission channels identified as exchange rates, real estate, and credit markets [13][19] - The findings suggested that a moderately accommodative monetary policy could mitigate the negative impacts of geopolitical economic risks, while stabilizing the real estate and bond markets could prevent a ratchet effect [13] Group 3 - The forum discussed the transformation of the global trade and investment system due to geopolitical economic risks, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and a shift in trade structures [18] - Empirical studies showed that trade barriers have reached peak levels since World War II, with significant adjustments in international trade patterns, particularly in U.S.-China trade [18][19] - The analysis pointed out that geopolitical risks have accelerated the restructuring of supply chains towards "nearshoring, friend-shoring, and diversification," emphasizing the need for security in supply chain management [19] Group 4 - The discussions included the impact of financial sanctions and geopolitical economic risks on the global payment system, highlighting the inefficiencies and risks associated with the SWIFT system [22] - The analysis indicated that the rise of geopolitical risks has led to a diversification of reserve currencies, with emerging currencies like the RMB gaining traction, although the USD remains a dominant safe haven [25][29] - The forum underscored the necessity for structural reforms and infrastructure optimization to enhance the RMB's international competitiveness and safe-haven attributes [30]
会议简报｜2025国际货币论坛主题论坛一成功举办 聚焦“地缘经济风险前沿研究成果”
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-02 14:26