Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing limited fluctuations as the market digests the potential impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on global economic growth and oil demand [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil increased by 4 cents to $71.74 per barrel, a rise of only 0.06%, while WTI crude oil rose by 1 cent to $69.27, showing minimal change [1] - Despite minor daily changes, oil prices recorded significant weekly gains, with Brent crude up 4.9% and WTI up 6.4% [1] - The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over supply disruptions due to U.S. threats of secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly in Asia [1][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs, if fully implemented, could increase import prices, thereby suppressing consumer spending and industrial activity, which would exert pressure on oil demand [3] - Initial data indicates that U.S. inflation has already begun to rise due to tariffs affecting the prices of imported goods such as furniture and entertainment [3] - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve, could limit borrowing and investment, further slowing economic growth and impacting the oil market negatively [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment remains cautious, with technical indicators showing a weakening bullish momentum, as indicated by a shortening of the MACD red bars [4] - WTI crude oil is currently in an upward channel but is experiencing reduced momentum, with short-term support at $68.50 and potential resistance at $70.50 [3][4] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound state in the short term, awaiting fundamental drivers to determine the direction [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Global trade uncertainties may provide short-term price support, especially concerning energy geopolitical factors [6] - Overuse of policy measures could exacerbate global market uncertainties and potentially suppress demand growth [6] - The oil market is facing a complex interplay of multiple macro risks and policies, leading to anticipated increased volatility in the future [6]
原油供给端担忧情绪支撑油价,短期回踩之后有望继续走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-02 17:40