数据“造假”两个月，市场全面崩盘，鲍威尔面临史诗级选择

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing significant turmoil due to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shocking revision of employment data, which cut 258,000 jobs from the previous two months [1] - The BLS report revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest growth since October 2024 [1] - The drastic downward revision of employment data has raised serious doubts about the reliability of the statistics, leading to accusations of data manipulation by some traders [1] Group 2 - The market reaction has been severe, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points, European markets also declining, and the U.S. dollar index falling below 100, indicating a rapid loss of confidence in the U.S. economy [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged from 40% to nearly 90%, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Concerns about a potential recession are heightened by rising inflation, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index reaching a new high of 2.8% since February [1] Group 3 - Former President Trump has intensified the situation by harshly criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, calling for an immediate rate cut to 1% to reduce interest payments on the national debt, which has reached $36 trillion [3] - Powell faces a challenging situation where cutting rates could stimulate employment but may also exacerbate inflation due to high tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [4] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is evident, with two officials voting against maintaining interest rates, arguing that the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.5% is too high and exceeds the neutral level of around 3% [5] Group 4 - Powell is under pressure from multiple fronts, including ongoing attacks from Trump, significant internal dissent within the Fed, and growing market fears of a recession [7] - The recent increase in tariffs on Canadian imports, from 25% to 35%, along with punitive tariffs on goods circumventing tariffs, has further raised living costs in the U.S. and intensified inflationary pressures [7] - The decision to maintain interest rates was based on uncertainties regarding the impact of tariffs, but the substantial revision of employment data has undermined this assumption [7]