国家队底牌曝光，跌破3500点将出手！这些板块成杀跌重灾区

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is facing a critical defense at the 3500-point level, influenced by the significant downturn in the US stock market, termed "Black Friday," which has raised concerns about a potential market top [1][3]. Market Impact - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 20-day moving average (3550 points) and showed weak rebound capacity, with key support levels shifting down to 3536-3542 points [1]. - The US stock market's decline was triggered by disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which reported only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 100,000 and the prior months' revised figures [3]. - The outflow of northbound capital from A-shares exceeded 50 billion in a single day, with a net outflow of 25.62 billion on August 1, heavily impacting the electronics and new energy sectors [5]. Sector Performance - Companies heavily reliant on the US market, such as Luxshare Precision and GoerTek, faced significant sell-offs due to high exposure, with US revenue accounting for over 60% [5]. - High-valuation stocks, particularly those with dynamic PE ratios exceeding 50, are at risk of substantial declines, as seen with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [5]. - The ChiNext index dropped 2% in a single day, pressured by profit-taking and the decline of major stocks like CATL [5]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 800 billion for "two重" construction projects by 2025, and the third batch of special bonds for consumer goods has been fully disbursed [8]. - However, the lack of new stimulus policies from recent meetings has heightened expectations of an economic slowdown [8]. - The real estate sector has seen a net capital outflow of 1.26 billion, raising doubts about the sustainability of any rebound [8]. Investment Strategy - A rebound in the A-share market requires two signals: a daily trading volume exceeding 900 billion and the implementation of policy countermeasures, particularly during the upcoming US-China tariff negotiations [9]. - Defensive asset allocation should increase to 50%, focusing on high-dividend sectors like coal and utilities, while also considering the healthcare sector due to aging population demands [9]. - Investors are advised to select stocks with a return on equity (ROE) exceeding 15% for three consecutive years and those that have seen institutional buying in the first quarter [9].