美联储降息救市！8月2日，深夜爆出的五大消息已全面发酵！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current turmoil in the financial markets, driven by political pressures, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, rising bond yields, and global trade tensions, all of which are contributing to a potential shift in the global financial order. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with three factions emerging: dovish, cautious about inflation, and hawkish, with differing views on interest rate adjustments [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady reflects the complex interplay of political and economic pressures, with significant implications for future monetary policy [9] Group 2: Political Influences - President Trump's late-night tweet demanding a 300 basis point rate cut caused immediate market reactions, including a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index [3] - The White House has begun the process of selecting a new Federal Reserve chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5%, marking the beginning of a "long-term high interest rate era," which could lead to increased debt servicing costs for the government [5] - The yield curve is approaching levels not seen since the 1980s, raising concerns about potential market instability [5] Group 4: Global Trade and Technology - The U.S.-China tech rivalry continues to escalate, with significant developments such as NVIDIA's approval to export AI chips to China, impacting market sentiment [6] - Trade tensions are further exacerbated by new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indonesian products, leading to retaliatory threats from other nations [6] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold futures prices have surged to a historical peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting heightened demand amid market volatility [7] - In contrast, the domestic gold market in China has experienced a decline in sales, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior amidst fluctuating prices [7]