国信证券(002736)：零售新龙头 外延谱新篇

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities is the only large listed brokerage firm in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area that is locally state-owned, with strong backing from the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and has a clear geographical advantage. The company has a higher ROE than its peers, demonstrating strong internal profitability rather than being driven by leverage [1]. Group 1: Retail Brokerage Business - The retail brokerage business has a significant advantage, benefiting from a bull market driven by individual investors. Guosen Securities has seen an increase in market share, with a customer margin scale of 90.7 billion yuan by the end of 2024, up 62% year-on-year, and a 48% increase compared to mid-2024, indicating strong retail business capabilities [2]. - The company has a mature and systematic investment advisory service product, which supports its commission rates and business profitability. The net commission rate is 0.03%, higher than comparable companies and the industry average of 0.02%, primarily due to enhanced services [2]. - Retail brokerage income accounts for a high proportion of total revenue, with a 35% share from retail brokerage and margin financing, positioning the company to benefit more from the current market environment [2]. Group 2: Proprietary Investment and Acquisitions - The company's proprietary investment yield is stable, supporting its ROE, with a strong internal growth capability. The proportion of Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) has increased, which helps reduce the volatility of proprietary investment yields and enhances the stability of the profit statement [3]. - Guosen Securities acquired control of Wanhe Securities for 5.2 billion yuan, with a reasonable valuation of 1.01 times PB. This acquisition is expected to enhance the overall leverage and drive ROE improvements for Wanhe Securities, achieving synergies and indirectly supplementing Guosen's capital [3]. - The acquisition is strategically positioned to benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Zone's cross-border asset management pilot policies, potentially allowing Guosen to gain early access to pilot institution qualifications [3].