LBX(SH:603883) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-03 02:45Core Viewpoint - The restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds is expected to generate over 30 billion yuan in revenue this year [1][4]. Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, reversing the previous exemption policy [2][3]. - Individuals purchasing these bonds will be exempt from VAT on interest income if their monthly sales do not exceed 100,000 yuan, applicable until December 31, 2027 [1][2]. Financial Impact - The reinstatement of VAT is projected to increase tax revenue by approximately 315.5 billion yuan, with commercial banks expected to bear the largest tax burden, estimated at 232.7 billion yuan [4]. - Future tax revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 321 billion yuan in 2025, 648 billion yuan in 2026, and 988 billion yuan in 2027 as the taxable bond market expands [5]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the tax increase will reduce the yield for bond investors, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for government and local bonds [3]. - The impact on bond market trends is considered to be limited, as the tax change is viewed as a one-time event, with any cost increases likely to be shared between issuers and investors [3].