美国关税税率创1934年来新高！耶鲁研究：GDP增速将年降0.5%，家庭支出增2400美元

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating extreme levels of trade protectionism [1] - The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, will affect 69 trading partners, with 40 countries facing a 15% tariff rate [3] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Increases - The tariffs are expected to increase average household spending in the U.S. by $2,400 by 2025, with significant impacts on clothing prices, which may rise by 38% [3] - Short-term price increases for consumer goods are anticipated, with footwear prices potentially increasing by 40% [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4] - Employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] - The weak employment report has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, raising expectations from 40% to 63% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion due to the new tariffs [5] - European stock markets also fell sharply, with major indices dropping nearly 3% in France [5] - Increased market volatility led to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold surging by 2.22% to surpass $3,360 [5]