特朗普赚翻了，果断解雇，美联储要换自己人，打开9月份降息大门

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is experiencing unprecedented turmoil driven by unexpected economic data and political maneuvers, particularly from the Trump administration, which is influencing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][7]. Economic Data Impact - The July non-farm payroll report showed a surprising drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000, triggering a global market reaction [3]. - Following the report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.23%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.24%, Brent crude oil prices plummeted by 3%, and the dollar index experienced a flash crash of 1.3% before closing down by 0.83% [3]. Political Reactions - President Trump reacted strongly to the disappointing employment data, accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of data manipulation and subsequently firing its director, which sparked widespread criticism from both Democrats and some conservatives [3][4]. - The political intervention raised concerns about the integrity of economic data, with professional organizations warning that it could undermine public trust [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor, nominated by President Biden, has shifted the balance of power within the Fed, potentially favoring a dovish stance as Trump seeks to appoint allies to fill the vacancy [4]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board may lead to a solidified dovish voting bloc, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [4]. Market Expectations - Following the weak employment data, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to 90% in the futures market, indicating strong market sentiment towards easing monetary policy [7]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including the August non-farm payroll and inflation data, which will influence the Fed's decision-making process [9]. Investor Sentiment - A recent Wall Street Journal poll indicated that 79% of investors believe that the Federal Reserve's independence is being compromised by political factors, reflecting growing concerns about the influence of the Trump administration on monetary policy [9].