降息，降息，降息！

Core Points - The release of non-farm payroll data has significantly increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a September rate cut soaring from 40% to 90%, and some traders betting on a direct 50 basis point cut [1] - The urgency for a rate cut is attributed not to the July non-farm data, but rather to substantial downward revisions of the May and June non-farm data to single digits, indicating a potential misrepresentation of economic stability [1] - New York Fed President Williams, described as an ally of Fed Chair Powell, expressed a "very open-minded" approach to the upcoming September rate cut meeting, suggesting a shift in communication strategy from Powell [1] - Former President Trump has made statements suggesting that if Powell does not cut rates, the Federal Reserve Board should "take control," indicating potential political pressure on the Fed [1] - With two out of seven Fed Board members publicly supporting a rate cut and a recent resignation creating a vacancy to be filled by Trump, there could be a shift in the board's dynamics, potentially leading to a 3 vs 3 split on rate cut decisions [1] - The possibility of a non-independent Fed is raising concerns in the market, as political influence could disrupt traditional monetary policy [1]