Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]
高瑞东 周欣平：为什么美国非农就业大幅下修？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-03 06:06