东方雨虹(002271)：国内需求承压 海外快速扩张

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, with a notable increase in overseas business growth despite domestic demand pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 76.14 billion, a decrease of 5.64% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.72 billion, down 37.52% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.35 billion, down 36.20% year-on-year [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 22.10 billion, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.76% [1]. - The overall revenue for the first half of the year decreased by 10.84%, primarily due to a contraction in direct sales related to real estate and weakened demand from both B-end and C-end customers [1]. Group 2: Product and Channel Performance - In H1, revenue from waterproof membranes, coatings, and sand powder was 55.13 billion, 39.46 billion, and 19.96 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8.84%, -17.11%, and -6.24% [1]. - Revenue by channel showed retail, engineering, and direct sales generating 50.59 billion, 63.47 billion, and 20.36 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.98%, -5.26%, and -28.01% [1]. - Retail business accounted for 37.28% of total revenue, an increase of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Geographic Performance - Overseas revenue reached 5.76 billion, marking a significant increase of 42.16% year-on-year, driven by the establishment of production lines and channel acquisitions in Southeast Asia, North America, and the Middle East [1]. Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - H1 gross margin was 25.40%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for waterproof membranes and coatings at 22.60% and 36.54%, down 5.23 and 1.04 percentage points respectively [2]. - The expense ratio was 17.06%, down 1.54 percentage points, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 9.04%, 5.67%, and 1.66%, showing year-on-year reductions [2]. - The company reported asset and credit impairment losses of 4.06 billion, primarily due to increased provisions for accounts receivable, with an impairment loss rate of 2.99%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 11.28 billion, 15.19 billion, and 19.09 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 943%, 35%, and 26% [2]. - Corresponding EPS for these years are projected to be 0.47, 0.64, and 0.80 yuan, with the latest closing price reflecting a 3-year PE of 25.25x, 18.75x, and 14.92x [2].