Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-03 11:33Core Viewpoint - The European banking sector, once considered a "market orphan," is experiencing a significant resurgence, driven by rising long-term interest rates and improved economic prospects [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major European bank stocks have reached their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis, with HSBC, Barclays, Santander, and UniCredit hitting multi-year peaks [2]. - The European Stoxx 600 Bank Index has risen 34% year-to-date, outperforming U.S. counterparts and poised for its best annual performance since 2009 [2]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - The European banking industry is undergoing a transformation from being viewed as a "market orphan" to a favored sector, as noted by Schroders' analyst Justin Bisseker [4]. - After over a decade of being criticized for insufficient capital and facing regulatory pressures, European banks are now benefiting from higher interest rates and a favorable macroeconomic environment [4]. Group 3: Profitability Drivers - Central banks have raised interest rates to combat inflation, significantly increasing banks' net interest income, which is crucial for profitability [4]. - For instance, the yield on Germany's 30-year government bonds is currently 1.3 percentage points higher than that of 2-year bonds, while in the UK, the spread exceeds 1.5 percentage points, creating an excellent profit environment for banks [5]. Group 4: Valuation Appeal - Despite the substantial rise in stock prices, many investors still view European bank stocks as "cheap," with Pictet's chief strategist highlighting their low valuations and unique advantages in a recovering domestic demand environment [6]. - According to FactSet, many European banks' valuations have just returned to their book values, while U.S. counterparts like JPMorgan have a price-to-book ratio of about 2.4 times [6]. - Bloomberg data indicates that the expected price-to-earnings ratio for European banks is around 10 times, lower than the over 13 times for U.S. peers, with many European banks now achieving a tangible return on equity (ROTE) exceeding 10% [6]. Group 5: Future Challenges - There are uncertainties regarding the sustainability of the current rally in European banks without continued increases in long-term interest rates [7]. - Market sentiment is shifting, with some analysts suggesting that the best times for banks may be behind them, despite the current favorable conditions [7]. - Additionally, attempts at industry consolidation, such as BBVA's bid for Sabadell and UniCredit's interest in BPM, have faced political obstacles, limiting growth potential [7]. - However, Bisseker from Schroders notes that European banks still have valuation discounts compared to global peers, indicating potential for further valuation convergence in the future [7].