侃股：对国债利息征税利好股市

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is the restoration of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which is seen as a long-term interest rate reduction operation [1] - The previous tax exemption policy for government bond interest was aimed at attracting investors during the early stages of the bond market, and the market has now reached a scale where such policies are no longer necessary [1][2] - The bond market will operate under a dual-track system, where existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions until maturity, making them attractive to institutional investors [1] Group 2 - New bonds will need to increase coupon rates to compensate for tax costs, otherwise, it will lead to a de facto interest rate reduction, with the after-tax yield of 10-year government bonds projected to drop from 1.7% to 1.59% if coupon rates remain unchanged [2] - The stock market is expected to benefit from three factors: enhanced relative returns, optimized fund structures, and positive policy signal effects, which may attract conservative funds into high-dividend stocks [2][3] - The tax reform is anticipated to have a long-term impact on the stock market, including a restructuring of pricing logic, optimization of the investment ecosystem, and guidance for capital to support the real economy, particularly in consumption and technology sectors [3]