宏观情绪转向，商品市场呈现普遍下跌格局｜期货周报

Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures mainly declined during the week from July 28 to August 1, with the black series experiencing a high-level correction after reaching new highs the previous week [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 0.03%, crude oil increased by 2.92%, while lithium carbonate fell by 14.41% [1] - The black series saw coking coal drop by 17.14%, coke down by 10.10%, and iron ore down by 2.43% [1] - In the basic metals sector, silver fell by 5.05%, lead by 1.20%, and nickel by 3.69% [1] - Agricultural products saw live pig prices decrease by 2.29%, soybean meal down by 0.36%, and palm oil down by 0.29% [1] - The shipping sector experienced a decline, with the European shipping index down by 6.78% [1] Gold Market Insights - Market risk aversion increased gold prices, with COMEX gold rising by 2.32% to $3416.0 per ounce, and London gold up by 0.77% to $3362.6850 per ounce [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value soaring by 45% to $132 billion, setting a new historical high [2] - Gold ETF investments were a key driver, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [2] - Gold supply increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with recycled gold supply up by 4%, although still relatively subdued in the high gold price environment [2] Future Gold Price Trends - Analysts suggest that gold prices may oscillate within a narrow range in the second half of the year due to a strong first half performance, with a 26% increase in USD gold prices [3] - The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, which could further support gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Diverging market views exist, with some analysts noting that strong US economic data may lead to a weakening of international gold prices [3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with Brent crude rising by 1.65% to $69.52 per barrel and WTI crude up by 1.36% to $67.26 per barrel [5] - The anticipated increase in refined oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere during Q3 is expected to boost oil demand [5] - However, the EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by approximately 7.7 million barrels, exceeding market expectations and causing a decline in international oil prices [5] - OPEC+ has increased production significantly, with a total increase of 1.8 million barrels per day over the past four months, which may continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [5] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 outlined a more positive assessment of internal and external economic conditions compared to the April meeting, indicating a potential "timely increase" in policy support for the second half of the year [7] - Key focuses include ensuring the implementation of previous policy arrangements, improving supply-demand relationships, and emphasizing the importance of capital markets [8] - The meeting highlighted the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on sustainable growth and risk management [9] Sector-Specific Analysis - In the lithium carbonate sector, supply disruptions are expected due to regulatory compliance issues, which may support prices in the short term [10] - The coking coal market is seeing a decrease in total inventory, indicating reduced supply pressure, while demand remains stable due to recovering coking profits [11] - The nickel market is experiencing volatility, with a potential shift back to fundamental factors as speculative trading cools down [11] - The agricultural sector, particularly live pigs, is expected to see increased supply in the latter half of the year, which may stabilize prices around production costs [11]