Core Viewpoint - The recent plunge in the domestic non-ferrous metal market reflects deep-seated challenges faced by the industry, driven by multiple long-term factors [1] Group 1: Small Metals Sector - The small metals sector, particularly manganese silicon, experienced a significant drop, with futures contracts plummeting 4.95%, a daily decline of 308 yuan, reaching a new low of 5910 yuan/ton [3] - Tungsten and cobalt indices also fell by 3.55% and 2.51% respectively, indicating accelerated capital outflow from the small metals sector [3] - The previous rise in manganese silicon prices by 15% due to steel production cuts was reversed due to lower-than-expected actual demand, leading to concentrated profit-taking and subsequent market collapse [3] Group 2: Industrial Metals Sector - The industrial metals sector saw widespread declines, with copper futures breaking the psychological barrier of 78,000 yuan/ton, closing at 78,110 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or 1.21% [5] - Aluminum prices fell to 20,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, while zinc and nickel also experienced significant drops [5] - The overall performance of the industrial metals sector has been notably weaker than the industrial product index, with supply-demand imbalances particularly pronounced in the aluminum market [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was not spared, with silver prices dropping significantly more than gold, with silver futures falling 2.04% compared to a 0.36% decline in gold [5] - The disparity in price movements between gold and silver highlights increasing internal differentiation within the precious metals market [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and External Pressures - The market sentiment is low due to multiple pressures, including a 50% tariff on imported copper products from the U.S., weak downstream demand, and accelerated capital withdrawal, with a net outflow of 19.6 billion yuan in a single day [6] - Although domestic copper inventories decreased by 13.17%, this was primarily due to reduced imports rather than a recovery in consumption [6] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.7 but remains below the expansion threshold, indicating ongoing challenges in traditional industries [6] Group 5: Structural Issues and External Shocks - The non-ferrous metal export value increased by 29.1% in the first half of the year, mainly driven by gold, while the trade volume between China and the U.S. fell by 11% due to trade frictions [7] - Profits in the mining sector grew by 41.7%, while processing sector profits declined by 0.4%, indicating a concentration of profits in upstream resources [7] - The government's stringent carbon reduction targets for the electrolytic aluminum industry further squeeze profit margins, particularly for small smelting enterprises [7] - Short-term demand expectations are negatively impacted by the decline in photovoltaic installations and reduced subsidies for home appliance replacements, despite long-term demand prospects in the new energy sector [7]
今日国内有色金属市场最新价格!有色金属普跌,锰硅领跌4.95%
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-03 14:14