油价大跌，利空来袭

Core Viewpoint - Major oil-producing countries are planning to significantly increase production in September, following a series of voluntary production cuts that were extended until March 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Production Plans - Eight major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, are expected to approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in a meeting on August 3 [1]. - These countries had previously announced a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million bpd in November 2023, which has been extended multiple times [1]. - After deciding to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, these countries increased production by 411,000 bpd in July and 548,000 bpd in August [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has already anticipated the news of increased production [2]. - On August 1, international oil prices saw a significant decline, with ICE Brent crude falling over 3% and WTI crude dropping by 2.89% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The timing of OPEC+'s latest production increase decision is notable, occurring amidst increased U.S. pressure on Russian and Iranian oil exports [4]. - The U.S. has intensified economic pressure on Russia and has requested countries like Brazil and India to reduce or stop importing Russian oil, although these requests have been rejected [4]. - On July 30, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on a shipping network controlled by Iranian oil merchant Mohammad Hossein Shahriari, marking the largest sanctions since the "maximum pressure" campaign began in 2018 [4].