美债快扛不住了？15万亿海外资金或将杀回中国，人民币要起飞？

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is facing a significant debt crisis, planning to borrow over $1 trillion in the next three months, which is more than double the amount borrowed in April [1][3] - The market's confidence in U.S. debt is wavering, as evidenced by the spike in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% and 30-year yields surpassing 5%, indicating investor skepticism [3] - The offshore RMB has appreciated by 3.5% from 7.4 to 7.1 against the dollar, reflecting a shift in currency dynamics amid U.S. debt issuance [5] Group 2 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to $756.3 billion, the lowest since 2009, while simultaneously issuing its own dollar-denominated bonds [5] - The global share of the dollar in foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 72% to 58%, while the use of RMB for settlements in ASEAN countries has surged to 38% [8] - Chinese enterprises hold approximately 15 trillion RMB in overseas funds, with predictions that a stronger offshore RMB could trigger significant capital repatriation [8][10] Group 3 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is widening, raising concerns about the sustainability of its debt strategy, especially as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [10][12] - China's fiscal strategy focuses on infrastructure and high-tech investments, with a fiscal deficit rate increase from 3% to 4%, leading to notable domestic market growth [12] - The ongoing capital movement and the potential for RMB appreciation could positively impact domestic stock and real estate markets [12][14] Group 4 - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, with the dollar's dominance being challenged and the internationalization of the RMB accelerating [15]