国债等债券利息收入恢复征收增值税

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a policy change regarding the value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, effective from August 8, 2025, which will end the previous tax exemption for these interest incomes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy will restore VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [1][2]. - Historically, interest income from these bonds was exempt from taxes to attract investment and expand the bond market [2][3]. - The policy change aims to prevent excessive capital from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds and to increase fiscal revenue [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, there was an initial increase in medium to long-term government bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from approximately 1.7040% to 1.7175% before retreating [4]. - The policy is expected to lead to a higher cost of issuing new bonds, while existing bonds may trade at a premium due to tax advantages [5]. - The removal of tax exemptions is anticipated to shift investor focus towards credit bonds or dividend assets, potentially leading to a bearish outlook for interest rate bonds [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Considerations - Individual investors will continue to be exempt from personal income tax on interest income from government bonds, despite the VAT restoration [6]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that tax policies can influence bond market rates and investor behavior, which may lead to increased volatility in bond yields [6][7]. - The ongoing "asset shortage" scenario is expected to persist, with a downward trend in interest rates likely, although market conditions may remain volatile due to external economic influences [7].