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8月3日丨聚玻玻璃期现周评(第24期):玻璃期货大幅回落吐尽涨幅,现货涨势放缓显观望。
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-03 16:16

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract price dropping by 121 yuan/ton, while the spot market initially rose before stabilizing, resulting in an average weekly price increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. Supply Side - The industry saw slight adjustments in operating rates and production due to the ignition of previously idled production lines, with inventory decreasing by 3.87% from last week, indicating ongoing destocking but at a reduced pace [2]. Demand Side - Some manufacturers adjusted their pricing, which provided some market support; however, the enthusiasm for procurement from downstream sectors has waned compared to earlier periods, leading to a slight decline in market transaction focus as the weekend approached [3]. Technical Analysis - The glass 09 contract experienced significant declines, with a weekly closing price down 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.1%, effectively reversing all gains from the previous week. The trading volume saw a substantial reduction, indicating a rapid exit of capital following the price drop, and open interest sharply decreased, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [4]. - The technical indicators show a complete bearish arrangement, with prices consistently breaking through key support levels and operating along the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a strong downward trend [4]. Market Outlook - On the fundamental side, supply-demand imbalances have been somewhat alleviated, with some manufacturers still planning price increases; however, after a phase of inventory replenishment, companies are primarily focused on digesting existing stock, with market demand driven mainly by essential purchases [4]. - Technically, the market exhibits characteristics of a confirmed bearish trend, with concerns over low demand and high supply potentially exerting long-term pressure. Without clear favorable policies, the market is unlikely to reverse its weak trend, with attention needed on the effectiveness of the 1100 yuan/ton support level [4].