霸权制裁遭遇滑铁卢！中印联手回击美能源禁令

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. measures to halt the purchase of Russian oil have created significant turbulence in the international energy market, leading to strong opposition from major energy consumers like China and India [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Legislative Actions - The U.S. government has enacted two binding laws since July 2025: the "2025 Sanctions on Russia Act" and the "Secondary Tariff Implementation Regulation," which impose punitive tariffs of up to 500% on countries continuing to purchase Russian energy [1]. - Despite the sanctions, U.S. companies imported over 12 million barrels of Russian oil in 2024 under special licenses, highlighting a double standard in the enforcement of these sanctions [3]. Group 2: Responses from China and India - In the first half of 2025, China imported 120 million tons of Russian oil, while India’s daily purchases exceeded 2.08 million barrels, demonstrating their commitment to energy autonomy [1]. - China has explicitly rejected energy procurement restrictions during the third round of U.S.-China negotiations and has conducted joint military exercises with Russia to strengthen energy cooperation [3]. - India has adopted a strategy of circumventing sanctions by increasing oil imports through private enterprises, with a 47% surge in Russian oil imports via Dubai [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Global Implications - The sanctions have accelerated the diversification of the energy system, with Russia signing currency settlement agreements with 15 countries, increasing the share of the yuan in Russian oil trade to 28% [4]. - The European Union is experiencing internal divisions, with countries like Germany and Hungary opposing further price caps on oil, fearing negative impacts on their manufacturing sectors [4]. - OPEC+ has adjusted its production strategy, with Saudi Arabia reducing daily oil production by 900,000 barrels for Q4 2025, contributing to a rise in Brent crude prices to the $86 range [4]. Group 4: Challenges to U.S. Energy Strategy - The U.S. energy ban faces legal challenges under WTO rules, economic backlash from allies, and political resistance from emerging economies, indicating a multi-faceted crisis for U.S. energy policy [4]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that non-dollar oil transactions could exceed 35% of total trade volume by 2026, further diminishing U.S. influence in the energy market [4].