24小时环球政经要闻全览 | 8月4日

Market Overview - Major stock indices in the US and Europe experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones down by 1.23% and the Nasdaq down by 2.24% [1] - The European Stoxx 50 fell by 2.90%, while the German DAX decreased by 2.66% [1] - Asian markets also showed negative trends, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.07% and the Nikkei 225 down by 0.66% [1] Economic Indicators - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that the US economy is on the brink of recession, citing stagnation in consumer spending and contraction in construction and manufacturing sectors [2] - High inflation complicates potential policy support from the Federal Reserve, with a noted decrease in labor force growth and a drop in labor participation rate [2] - The job market is showing signs of tightening, with increased hiring freezes and reduced average working hours [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 89.1%, with only a 10.9% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - There is a 52.8% probability of a total rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year [3] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking an early exit from the current supply reduction plan [4][5] - This shift indicates a strategic change from defending oil prices to increasing production capacity, raising expectations of a global supply surplus in the latter half of the year [5] UK Economic Policy - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% due to economic challenges stemming from tax increases and cautious consumer behavior [5] - There is speculation regarding the Bank's stance on quantitative tightening, particularly in light of rising tensions in long-term UK bond yields [5] Indian Manufacturing Advocacy - Indian Prime Minister Modi urged citizens to purchase domestically manufactured goods to support the economy amid global uncertainties [8][9] - Modi emphasized the importance of domestic manufacturing and consumption for the welfare of farmers, small industries, and youth employment [9] Technological Developments - Elon Musk announced the launch of Grok Imagine, an AI text-to-video generator, which is currently in testing and allows users to create videos from text descriptions [10] - OpenAI's GPT-5 is nearing release, with expectations of enhanced coding and commercialization capabilities [10] Market Trends in Alcohol Industry - The wholesale price of Moutai's zodiac snake liquor has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle for the first time, indicating a significant decline from its market guidance price of 2499 yuan [10]