Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-04 00:33Market Overview - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data was revised downwards [3][19] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while year-on-year wage growth increased to 3.9%, above the anticipated 3.8% [19] - The weak employment data has heightened concerns about economic growth, leading to a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability for a September cut rising to approximately 89.1% [6][19] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.23% to 43,588.58 points, the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.01 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.24% to 20,650.13 points [1] - For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.4%, marking its worst performance since May 23, while the Dow and Nasdaq recorded declines of 2.9% and 2.2%, respectively [1] Corporate Earnings - Approximately 81% of U.S. companies have exceeded analyst expectations in their earnings reports, surpassing the average of 76% over the past four quarters, indicating strong corporate performance despite broader economic concerns [8] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The resignation of a Federal Reserve board member and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau head have raised questions about the integrity of U.S. economic data, potentially impacting future monetary policy decisions [20] - Analysts suggest that the current economic climate, characterized by high market valuations and increasing macro risks, may lead to a shift towards defensive positions among investors [8] Commodity Market - Following the release of weak non-farm payroll data, gold prices surged, with spot gold rising 2.25% to $3,362.09 per ounce, while silver increased by 0.97% to $37.025 per ounce [19] - In contrast, oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude dropping 2.83% to $67.30 per barrel and Brent crude falling 3.04% to $69.52 per barrel, amid concerns over demand [19]