国投证券：A股上周回调，牛市逻辑被打破了么？

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74% last week, indicating a general market pullback [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 1.81 trillion yuan, showing a week-on-week decline [1] - Despite the recent market correction, there is a belief that the conditions for a liquidity-driven bull market are in place, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities [1] Structural Insights - The current extreme barbell strategy represented by banks and micro-cap stocks still holds some absolute return potential, but the effectiveness of excess returns is declining [1] - Low-valuation large-cap growth stocks are beginning to see a rebound in both absolute and excess returns, with a strong focus on the ChiNext Index and technology sectors for Q3 [1] Economic Context - The recent slight market pullback is attributed to a relatively mild economic stimulus from the domestic Politburo meeting and disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which led to a significant drop in U.S. stocks [5] - The market remains optimistic about the A-share index's performance in August, supported by active credit expansion and a favorable liquidity environment [5] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, raising concerns about potential stagflation in the U.S. economy [5] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have increased, with predictions of three rate cuts by the end of the year [5] Policy Developments - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need to regulate chaotic competition among enterprises and promote capacity governance in key industries, indicating a shift in policy focus [8] - The meeting's outcomes suggest a rational return to pricing for commodities and a potential rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI) driven by supply-side constraints [8] Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy suggests a preference for low-valuation large-cap growth stocks, technology innovation sectors, and globally priced resource categories [9] - The divergence in returns between extreme barbell assets and intermediate assets has reached historical extremes, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [12][10] Market Sentiment - The banking sector has experienced a significant pullback, with the index declining over 6% since mid-July, yet it remains resilient [22] - The ChiNext Index and technology sectors are expected to benefit from improving investment effectiveness and favorable macroeconomic conditions [25]