黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.8.4）

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90%, with predictions of two cuts by year-end, and some institutions forecasting a 50 basis point cut in September [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.39% on August 1, closing at 98.68, marking the largest single-day drop since April. This decline reduced the cost of holding gold. U.S. Treasury yields also dropped significantly, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.710% (the lowest in five weeks) and the 10-year yield dropping to 4.223% (the largest single-day drop since early April), creating a favorable low-interest environment for gold [3] - Tariff policies have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump imposed high tariffs (25%-50%) on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to a global stock market crash and increased market risk aversion. This situation has driven demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The tariffs raised import costs, causing the U.S. manufacturing PMI to drop to 48.0 (indicating contraction for the fifth consecutive month) and factory employment to hit a five-year low, further supporting gold prices amid rising global economic uncertainty [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding its policy direction. Chairman Powell previously stated that no decision had been made regarding a September rate cut, but the weak employment data has weakened the hawkish stance. There are internal divisions among officials, with some concerned about the labor market slowdown while others advocate for maintaining interest rates. The upcoming employment data in August (to be released on September 5) will be a critical reference point, and continued weakness may further solidify rate cut expectations [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant rise last Friday, breaking through multiple moving average resistances, indicating strong momentum. The 5-day moving average has turned upward, suggesting short-term upward momentum, while the 10-day moving average remains slightly downward, indicating some divergence in short- to medium-term trends. The 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are flat, suggesting that short-term moving averages may not provide clear guidance for precise short-term direction. Since mid-May, gold has been in a high-level wide-ranging oscillation pattern, and the overall approach should remain cautious regarding premature judgments of a one-sided trend [7] - On the four-hour chart, gold is in the C-wave of a larger correction that began from 3500. The C-wave is further divided, with the C-1 wave dropping to 3247 and the C-2 wave rising to 3438/3439. Currently, gold is experiencing a decline in the C-3 wave after encountering resistance at 3438/3439. The analysis suggests that the recent low of 3268 may mark the end of the C-3-1 wave decline, with a potential upward movement in the C-3-2 wave expected. The focus for the beginning of this week should be on the continuation of the C-3-2 wave upward movement, while monitoring for potential resistance at previous highs [9] - Resistance levels to watch are 3373/3374 and 3402/3403, which correspond to Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent decline. Support levels to monitor are in the range of 3340-3335, with additional support at 3325 and 3315 if the market experiences significant pullbacks [10]