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人民币兑美元中间价调升101点至7.1395,升幅创1月21日来最大!7月美国非农数据或尚不足以改变鲍威尔偏鹰立场
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-04 01:28

Group 1 - The central bank of China raised the RMB to USD midpoint rate by 101 points to 7.1395, marking the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 10.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.1% [4] - In October, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged is 3.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 35.6% and a 50 basis point cut at 60.9% [4] Group 3 - The July U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, while the unemployment rate only slightly increased [5] - The impact of immigration policies since May is believed to be increasingly affecting the job market, leading to a notable drag on non-farm payroll numbers, although the unemployment rate remains relatively stable [5] - The July employment data may not be sufficient to alter Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish stance [5]