信用债ETF天弘（159398）冲击四连阳，国债等债券利息收入将恢复征收增值税，机构：信用债相对比价将有所提升

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Tianhong credit bond ETF showing a slight increase, indicating a potential shift in investor behavior due to upcoming tax policy changes on bond interest income [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of August 4, the Tianhong credit bond ETF (159398) has risen by 0.10%, marking a potential four-day streak of gains [1]. - The Tianhong credit bond ETF tracks the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index, reflecting the operational characteristics of the credit bond market in Shenzhen [1]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT), while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1]. - This policy change is expected to influence investor behavior, leading to a preference for holding bonds to maturity for interest income, which may reduce market trading activity and pricing efficiency [2]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The adjustment in tax policy is anticipated to enhance the trading attributes of national and local government bonds, making institutions more focused on capital gains rather than just interest income [2]. - The relative pricing of credit bonds may improve due to the existing VAT on credit bond interest income, which previously placed them at a disadvantage compared to other bond types [2]. - Short-term effects of the policy change favor older bonds, while long-term implications suggest a decrease in after-tax yields for institutional investors, potentially guiding funds away from excessive concentration in the bond market [2].