金荣中国：美国7月非农大爆冷，金价大幅走高强势收涨

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on August 1, closing at $3,348.53 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,355.09 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate for July was reported at 4.2%, matching market expectations, while the previous month's rate was 4.1% [2] - The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July added 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down significantly from 147,000 to 14,000 [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 3.8%, and month-over-month wages rose by 0.3%, aligning with expectations [2] Economic Outlook - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, citing stagnation in consumer spending and contraction in construction and manufacturing sectors [4] - The low unemployment rate is attributed to stagnant labor growth and a decrease in immigrant labor, leading to a decline in labor force participation [4] - The current job market is experiencing a freeze in hiring and a reduction in average working hours, indicating increasing employment pressures [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Stephen Miran from the White House suggested the need for a "new perspective" on economic statistics, following President Trump's claims of manipulated employment data [5] - Federal Reserve officials, including Williams, noted that the labor market remains robust despite the disappointing non-farm payroll data, with a cautious stance on potential interest rate cuts [6][7] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is at 10.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 89.1% [8] Gold Market Dynamics - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a decrease in holdings by 1.43 tons, bringing the total to 953.08 tons [7] - Gold prices reacted positively to the weak employment data, with a notable rise following the release of the non-farm payroll report [11]