美股“八月魔咒”来了？华尔街陷入恐慌性抛售

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from 69 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, increasing market uncertainty and leaving room for negotiations [1] - The Trump administration has initiated independent tariff investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, and industrial products, indicating prolonged uncertainty in trade policy [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [1] Group 2 - Following the disappointing employment report, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 45% to 75%, with traders pricing in two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of the year [6] - The U.S. stock market experienced a four-day decline, with the Dow Jones falling 1.23%, the S&P 500 down 1.60%, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.24%, as major tech companies faced significant pressure [7] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 typically experiences an average decline of 0.7% in August and September, marking these months as the worst-performing of the year [10] - The current market environment is complicated by high valuations driven by AI trends and "soft landing" expectations, alongside new tariffs and economic data releases, leading to increased market pressure [12] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has heightened concerns about economic momentum, triggering a potential "August curse" and prompting institutions to adopt "low-cost defensive" strategies [12]