66万亿「生育补贴」，救不了日本生育率？

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Child and Childcare Support Fund" in Japan, often referred to as the "single tax" by the public, aims to address the declining birth rate but has sparked significant public backlash due to its perceived unfairness and ineffectiveness [1][5][12]. Group 1: Tax Structure and Public Reaction - The "Child and Childcare Support Fund" is not a direct tax on single individuals but a funding mechanism to support families with children, requiring contributions from all insured individuals [8][9]. - The tax burden increases with individual income, with specific amounts outlined for different income brackets from 2026 to 2028 [10]. - Public sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, with many referring to it as a "single tax" despite government clarifications [12][14]. Group 2: Historical Context and Effectiveness - Japan has invested approximately 66 trillion yen in various birth rate initiatives since 2004, yet the birth rate continues to decline, with projections of only 730,000 newborns in 2024 [20][22]. - Previous financial incentives have shown diminishing returns, with a recent estimate suggesting that an additional 1 trillion yen in child allowances would only marginally increase the birth rate by 0.1% [23]. Group 3: Alternative Approaches to Addressing Low Birth Rates - Successful examples of increasing birth rates, such as in Nagareyama City, highlight the importance of comprehensive support systems beyond financial incentives, including improved childcare services and community involvement [27][32]. - The focus on creating a supportive environment for families, rather than solely relying on monetary incentives, may offer a more effective solution to Japan's demographic challenges [34][35].