特朗普威胁失效？印度硬刚美国：俄罗斯石油照买不误！莫迪到底在赌什么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tension between the United States and India regarding India's continued purchase of Russian oil, highlighting India's defiance against U.S. threats of sanctions and tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Pressure on India - On July 31, President Trump warned India that continued purchases of Russian oil would lead to "secondary sanctions" and a potential 35% tariff increase [3]. - India has become the largest buyer of Russian oil, importing 1.75 million barrels per day by 2025, which constitutes 35% of its total oil imports [3]. - India's response to Trump's threats was immediate, reaffirming its commitment to Russian oil contracts, which have been signed for years [3]. Group 2: India's Strategic Response - The Modi government is implementing a multi-faceted strategy to counter U.S. pressure, including promoting "Make in India" initiatives to reduce import dependency [5]. - India is diversifying its energy partnerships with the Middle East and Africa while continuing to purchase Russian oil [5]. - A significant move includes settling Russian oil trades in rupees, circumventing U.S. dollar sanctions [5]. Group 3: Economic Justifications - The discounted price of Russian oil saves India over $20 billion annually, alleviating inflationary pressures [9]. - India can also profit from refining Russian oil and selling it to Europe, potentially earning $60 per barrel in profit [9]. - Long-term contracts with Russia pose high penalties for non-compliance, making it economically unfeasible for India to halt purchases [9]. Group 4: Historical and Geopolitical Context - India has a long-standing relationship with Russia, relying on it for 70% of its military supplies since the Cold War [10]. - The depth of military cooperation between Modi and Putin, evidenced by over 50 meetings, strengthens India's position against U.S. sanctions [10]. - The geopolitical landscape suggests that the U.S. needs India as a counterbalance to China, making it less likely for the U.S. to abandon India [11].