鲍威尔鹰派立场坚定 老虎证券料年底最多减息一次

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) maintains the view that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once before the end of the year, with confidence in such a move likely to be established only after October [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been firm in his stance, emphasizing that decisions will depend on data and not providing any hints regarding the timing of interest rate cuts [1] - Despite acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth and facing significant dissent within the committee, Powell's clear position indicates that he will not ease policy until inflation data shows a clear and sustained decline to target levels [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment and inflation data suggest early signs of economic slowdown and cost transmission to consumer goods [1] - A key variable affecting the economic outlook is tariffs, with the actual implementation of new tariffs delayed until August 1, which will subsequently delay the price transmission process [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Powell is expected to require complete economic reports for August and September to assess whether the price increases triggered by tariffs are a one-time shock or indicative of more persistent long-term inflation expectations [1] - Consequently, the Federal Reserve is likely to lack sufficient data confidence to initiate a rate-cutting cycle before the October meeting [1]