芦哲：非农后，如何看待当前美国经济状况？——海外周报

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic data and events this week were dense, culminating in the non-farm payroll data released on Friday, which dominated market trading. The disappointing and significantly revised non-farm employment data reignited recession concerns, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Under the baseline expectation, the U.S. economy is still in a soft landing phase, with short-term asset price volatility reflecting market concerns about the "slope" of the U.S. economic downturn [1]. Major Asset Classes - The non-farm payroll data dominated market trading, with recession concerns leading to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in declines in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields. The disappointing new non-farm jobs and significant downward revisions to previous data reignited recession fears, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices to drop by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively. Over the week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%. The dollar index rose by 1.53% to 99.14, and spot gold prices increased by 0.78% to $3363 per ounce [2]. Overseas Economy - Short-term data amplified recession concerns, but the U.S. economy remains in a soft landing phase. Key U.S. economic data this week, including GDP (core GDP excluding net exports and inventory changes), non-farm payrolls, and manufacturing PMI, were weak. The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded 48, significantly below the expected 49.5. The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, better than the consensus forecast of 2.6%. However, the private domestic final purchases (PDFP) grew only by 1.2%, indicating that the GDP growth was more due to a rebound from Q1 imports rather than strong internal economic growth. The July non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The July FOMC meeting was hawkish, but there were internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. The decision to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5% was passed with a 9-2 vote, with two members voting against it, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Chair Powell noted that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains high, necessitating a restrictive policy rate. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may provide President Trump an opportunity to appoint a new member, potentially influencing monetary policy direction [4]. Overseas Politics - President Trump officially signed an executive order announcing the "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" rates for 69 trade partners, with significant reductions compared to the previous version. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. The announcement reflects the negotiation dynamics between the U.S. and its trade partners. The legal challenges surrounding Trump's authority to impose these tariffs may accelerate negotiations, but uncertainty remains regarding potential adjustments to tariffs in response to legal risks [5].