ETO Markets 市场洞察: 非农数据造假，7月就业岗位蒸发25.8万，黄金暴涨真相曝光！

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, increased safe-haven demand due to tariff policies, and heightened global economic uncertainty [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a weakening economic momentum [3] - The manufacturing PMI in the U.S. fell from 49.0 to 48.0, marking a contraction in the manufacturing sector [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.39% to 98.68, the largest single-day decline since April, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 24.1 basis points to 3.710%, while the ten-year yield decreased to 4.223%, reflecting strong market expectations for interest rate cuts [4] Group 3: Tariff Policies and Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in safe-haven demand for gold [5] - Geopolitical tensions, including military actions in Gaza and attacks on Russian military enterprises, have further fueled market uncertainty and increased demand for gold [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the weak employment data [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that no decision has been made regarding a September rate cut, highlighting internal disagreements within the Fed regarding economic conditions [8] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through key resistance levels at $3,330 and $3,350, with potential to challenge the $3,400 mark if the weekly close remains above these levels [10] - Analysts suggest that the shift in rate cut expectations will support gold's short-term price movements [10] Group 6: Future Considerations - The upcoming August employment data, to be released on September 5, will be crucial for determining the Fed's policy direction and could further influence gold prices [9] - While bullish sentiment is strong, there is a cautionary note regarding potential price corrections if gold falls below $3,330 [11]