Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Huan Qiu Wang·2025-08-04 05:41Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its oil price forecast, predicting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, but noted increasing risks to its baseline estimates due to recent developments [1] - The bank highlighted downward risks to its forecast of 800,000 barrels per day demand growth for 2025-2026, citing rising U.S. tariff rates, additional secondary tariff threats, and weak U.S. economic activity data [3] - Goldman Sachs' economists indicated that the weak data suggests the U.S. economy is currently growing below potential, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the latest move in a series of accelerated production increases to regain market share [3] - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will maintain its production quotas unchanged after September, anticipating a faster pace of OECD commercial inventory builds and a decline in seasonal demand support [3]