债券增值税新政发布，债市新老券利差走阔成焦点，30年国债ETF博时(511130)午盘上涨33个bp

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, while a new tax policy on bond interest income will take effect from August 8, 2025, impacting the bond market significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - The new tax policy will impose a value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, with a 6% rate for financial institutions and 3% for public funds [1][3]. - Existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to enjoy tax exemption until maturity, creating a tax advantage for these bonds and potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds by 5-10 basis points [3][4]. - The credit bond market may benefit as the tax burden on interest income remains unchanged, leading to a potential narrowing of credit spreads compared to interest rate bonds [3]. Group 2: Fund Management Implications - Public funds may gain a relative advantage over proprietary accounts due to the new tax structure, as public funds will face a lower VAT rate on interest income compared to proprietary accounts [3][4]. - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to be released quickly, while the attractiveness of these bonds may lead to a decrease in their yields [4][5]. - New bonds may need to increase their coupon rates to compensate for the tax burden, with estimates suggesting a rise of approximately 10-11 basis points for 10-year government bonds to maintain net interest income parity with existing bonds [5].