光伏产业在破局攻坚中迈向高质量发展

Core Viewpoint - The global energy transition is entering a critical phase, with China's photovoltaic (PV) industry shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality leap" [1][3][10] Industry Overview - China's PV industry has established the most competitive supply chain globally, maintaining the highest production and installation capacity for over a decade [2] - In the first half of 2025, China is expected to add 212.21 GW of new PV installations, a 107% year-on-year increase, with a global installation forecast of 570-630 GW, of which China will account for over 45% [2] Technological Advancements - The N-type battery has become the market mainstream, with TOPCon technology accounting for over 75% of production capacity [2] - Leading companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar are innovating with technologies such as HIBC and BC, achieving significant efficiency improvements [2][7] Market Challenges - The PV industry faces structural contradictions, including overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to significant price fluctuations and profit margin compression [4][5] - As of July 2024, the production capacity across the main industry chain is expected to exceed 1200 GW, while global demand is only around 580 GW, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance [4] Policy and Industry Response - A comprehensive "anti-involution" campaign is underway, focusing on policy guidance and industry self-regulation to combat low-price competition and promote quality improvement [6][7] - The Central Economic Committee has emphasized the need for a unified national market and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6] Future Outlook - The PV industry is expected to transition from "volume competition" to "technology competition," with a focus on specialized applications and market differentiation [8] - The industry is predicted to experience a consolidation phase, enhancing overall competitiveness and addressing excess capacity [8][9] - With ongoing policy support and technological breakthroughs, the domestic PV industry is anticipated to overcome current challenges and contribute significantly to global energy transition efforts [10]