工业硅：7月价格反弹 产量降需求有变化

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market experienced a price rebound in July 2025, with complex supply and demand dynamics influencing the market [1] Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon reached 9,164 CNY/ton, a 15.60% increase from 7,927 CNY/ton on July 1 [1] - Supply decreased in July due to a major factory in Xinjiang reducing production for nearly a month, with a resumption in late July; however, production increases in Yunnan and Sichuan were limited [1] - The overall industrial silicon production is expected to slightly increase next month, with a monthly output forecasted to exceed 340,000 tons [1] Demand Side - A major organic silicon enterprise reduced operational load due to equipment maintenance, leading to decreased monthly demand [1] - The polysilicon sector saw a slight increase in operating rates due to policy guidance, which is favorable for the market [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is in a low season, resulting in demand-driven procurement [1] Export Dynamics - In June, exports totaled 68,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.77% and a year-on-year increase of 11.57% [1] - From January to June, total exports reached 340,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%, which negatively impacts demand [1] Cost and Profitability - In July, the prices of key materials increased, pushing costs higher; however, the overall profit margin for industrial silicon widened due to price increases outpacing cost rises [1] - Standard warehouse inventory has been largely depleted, but industry inventory remains at historically high levels [1] Market Outlook - The market is characterized by "strong expectations, weak realities," with short-term fluctuations driven by policy and market sentiment [1] - Long-term supply-demand contradictions remain unresolved, with production resumption in the southwest imminent [1] - Strategies include wide fluctuations in futures contracts and selling out-of-the-money put options for inventory protection [1]