Delaney 研报 —— 美国利率政策变动及潜在影响分析

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by macroeconomic changes and political pressures, particularly from former President Trump advocating for lower rates to stimulate the economy [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% due to concerns over inflation and tariff expectations, despite calls for a rate cut from some members [3][4]. - Chairman Powell highlighted that the core PCE inflation remains above the 2% target at approximately 2.7%, and the labor market is still strong with GDP growth rebounding to 3% [3][4]. Trump's Rate Cut Logic - Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and suggested lowering rates to 1% or lower to stimulate the economy and alleviate inflation pressures [3][4]. - The White House supports using tariff revenues to fund stimulus policies, believing that market reactions have not fully accounted for these effects [3][4]. Market Consensus - Current market expectations for a rate cut in September are around 45% to 60%, down from earlier expectations of 70% [4]. Delaney's Perspective on Web3 Assets - If a rate cut occurs, it could enhance market liquidity and leverage willingness, supporting risk assets [6]. - A loose dollar environment may drive global capital towards on-chain assets and DeFi, but excessive rate cuts could lead to credit expansion and potential asset bubble risks [6]. - If rates remain unchanged, the focus for Web3 asset allocation should shift from momentum trends to the dynamic intersection of economic and policy variables [6][8]. Neutral Integration of Market Views - Rate-cut advocates argue that inflation pressures are manageable and labor data shows signs of weakness, necessitating immediate cuts to relieve economic stress [6][9]. - The cautious stance of the Fed is seen as beneficial for controlling inflation, though it may suppress consumption and loan demand, impacting certain economic indicators that could affect on-chain assets [8][9]. - Data remains the core support for policy decisions, and the current policy debate should not be oversimplified as a political confrontation but viewed as a market response to data cycles and monetary policy [10].